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  • Jason Calacanis 06:00:05 on 2019-01-18 Permalink
    Tags:   

    This is your Captain again, I’m canceling drink service 

    In July I wrote a message to my founders, warning that things could get choppy, titled “This is your Captain speaking, I’m turning on the fasten seat belt sign.”

    Well, this is your captain again, and we’ve got turbulence ahead so I’m canceling drink service and asking everyone to check your seatbelts.

    [ Click to Tweet (can edit before sending): https://ctt.ac/Bfrnm ]

    On the day I wrote the last piece the NASDAQ was at 7,932 (July 25th), and over the next couple of months, it crashed over 20% to 6,192.

    It’s since recovered to ~7,000.

    While no one can time the market, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

    The Black Swans are hiding all around us in plain sight, while at the same time big tech companies have soaring sales, letting them build mountains and mountains of cash.

    When I look out there I see three things that make me cautious:

    1. The Russian investigation combined with the growing impeachment movement
    2. The Chinese trade war combined with the arrest of the Huawei CFO in Canada and another employee in Poland. A Canadian citizen in China has been sentenced to death for drug smuggling, as well — coincidence?
    3. The Corporate Debt bubble

    In the last piece, I explained to founders what happens when things collapse. In short, angels and VCs slow or stop investing, and the startups with under a year of revenue and no prospects of hitting breakeven go away.

    Will the market crash? No one knows, but I do know that the Boy Scout motto is as true today as it has ever been: be prepared!  

    Bottom line: For my founders, I want you all to check that you have 18 months of runway in your bank and a clear path to profitability — if you’re not profitable yet. Be. Pre. Pared.

    More:

    Corporate Debt

    Canadian citizen sentenced to death

    Huawei arrest in Poland

    The post This is your Captain again, I’m canceling drink service appeared first on Calacanis.com.

     

  • Jason Calacanis 19:18:20 on 2019-01-16 Permalink
    Tags:   

    Always Have a Plan B and C Teed Up 

    I spent 10 years living in Los Angeles, traveling up to the Bay Area every other week, sometimes weekly, to do angel investing.

    During that time I learned that SFO is a complete disaster, with Karl the Fog creating all kinds of trouble. Also, I was frequently missing flights with insanely unpredictable traffic patterns in L.A. and the Bay.

    [ Click to Tweet (can edit before sending): https://ctt.ac/n9b7e ]

    When I made a little cheddar, I started treating myself to the fully refundable Southwest Premier tickets, you know the ones, that let you board first and take the aisle seat in row two. The coveted seat that lets you put your bag under the seat in front of you which in turn lets you bolt past the row one customers who are fumbling for their overhead luggage.

    So, I started having my EA book me three flights back at 5PM, 6PM and 7PM to avoid the issue of delayed and canceled flights and traffic snafus.

    I also started booking two flights out — one landing at San Jose, which is 3x farther from the city but has no delays — in addition to my SFO flight.

    So, five flights booked for a two-flight need.

    Paranoid? Overkill? Unethical?!

    The results speak for themselves: zero missed meetings, no delays and no drama, with the only cost being an extra 30-45 minutes of an EA’s time (to book and refund 3 flights, 2x). If you look at the cost of an EA, say $40 all in, it’s $20-30 to have this kind of parallel planning.

    What’s the cost of missing a meeting with a new hire, investor or customer!?

    Answer: more than $20!

    I bring this up because there is a bigger issue from this lesson, which is, not only should you always have a Plan B, you should have a Plan C as well and, if possible, have them teed up to switch to — in your startup and life.

    Inspired by Fred’s post while he was stuck at LAX: “If The Train Is Delayed, Find Another Way Home”

    “If The Train Is Delayed, Find Another Way Home”

    What’s your favorite travel hack? Gray and black hat techniques are welcome but not condoned.

    The post Always Have a Plan B and C Teed Up appeared first on Calacanis.com.

     

  • Jason Calacanis 19:18:20 on 2019-01-16 Permalink
    Tags:   

    Always Have a Plan B and C Teed Up 

    I spent 10 years living in Los Angeles, traveling up to the Bay Area every other week, sometimes weekly, to do angel investing.

    During that time I learned that SFO is a complete disaster, with Karl the Fog creating all kinds of trouble. Also, I was frequently missing flights with insanely unpredictable traffic patterns in L.A. and the Bay.

    [ Click to Tweet (can edit before sending): https://ctt.ac/n9b7e ]

    When I made a little cheddar, I started treating myself to the fully refundable Southwest Premier tickets, you know the ones, that let you board first and take the aisle seat in row two. The coveted seat that lets you put your bag under the seat in front of you which in turn lets you bolt past the row one customers who are fumbling for their overhead luggage.

    So, I started having my EA book me three flights back at 5PM, 6PM and 7PM to avoid the issue of delayed and canceled flights and traffic snafus.

    I also started booking two flights out — one landing at San Jose, which is 3x farther from the city but has no delays — in addition to my SFO flight.

    So, five flights booked for a two-flight need.

    Paranoid? Overkill? Unethical?!

    The results speak for themselves: zero missed meetings, no delays and no drama, with the only cost being an extra 30-45 minutes of an EA’s time (to book and refund 3 flights, 2x). If you look at the cost of an EA, say $40 all in, it’s $20-30 to have this kind of parallel planning.

    What’s the cost of missing a meeting with a new hire, investor or customer!?

    Answer: more than $20!

    I bring this up because there is a bigger issue from this lesson, which is, not only should you always have a Plan B, you should have a Plan C as well and, if possible, have them teed up to switch to — in your startup and life.

    Inspired by Fred’s post while he was stuck at LAX: “If The Train Is Delayed, Find Another Way Home”

    “If The Train Is Delayed, Find Another Way Home”

    What’s your favorite travel hack? Gray and black hat techniques are welcome but not condoned.

    The post Always Have a Plan B and C Teed Up appeared first on Calacanis.com.

     

  • Jason Calacanis 20:34:41 on 2019-01-15 Permalink
    Tags:   

    Zuckerberg tries to buy off journalists with .3% of Facebook’s yearly revenue 

    Yesterday I wrote the first piece in a three-part series about how Facebook could turn around their “WORST. YEAR. EVAR!!!”

    [ Click to Tweet (can edit before sending): https://ctt.ac/7bv10 ]

    The basic premise: share revenue with publishers, Instagrammers/influencers, App developers and anyone else creating content on the platform, just like YouTube, Airbnb, Apple and Google’s App Stores and countless other partnership platforms do.

    Right on cue, Facebook does the most misguided, heavy-handed and unsustainable version of sharing the wealth, by sharing $100m a year — .3% of their yearly revenue — in a series of grants.

    The cynical take is that these kinds of one-time payoffs, to highly influential media organizations, are designed to silence and tamper criticism — they’re buying off influential people for a pittance.

    The most gracious take is that Facebook feels bad for being such a horrible partner to the press and democracy.

    Either way, it’s not sustainable and it’s braindead stupid. Who on earth is advising Zuckerberg about this?!

    In June of 2017, Apple reported they shared $70 billion with App developers.

    Google doesn’t break out YouTube’s revenue, but everyone knows it’s tens of billions, and that they pay out 55% to partners. The rumor in 2015 was $9B in total revenue, and we can assume that has grown to $20b+.

    If YouTube paid out 55% of even $10B that’s $5.5b to content creators — we’re talking Netflix-level spend, and 55x the pittance Facebook is splashing around a bunch of journalist nonprofits.

    The data in this chart is from Forbes, not YouTube, so it’s likely incomplete, but if this is anywhere in the ballpark, YouTube is paying it’s top five stars MORE than what Facebook is donating to non-profit organizations.

    Right now Facebook makes $33B+ a year, or almost $100M a day, off the backs of Instagrammers, Facebook users and publishers — they share zero point zero.

    If I were running Facebook I would commit 20% of top-line revenue to creators, from the New York Times to podcasters to App developers, and splash $7B to creators — a fraction of what Apple pays out a year, but what would build a base of stakeholders in the future of Facebook.

    Right now Facebook has zero friends in the industry, and legions of enemies and detractors, including the founders of WhatsApp and Instagram. Think about what a poor job Zuckerberg has done building goodwill with his juggernaut. Even the founders he made billionaires are attacking him on the way out the door with their paychecks?

    Facebook Misguided Announcement

    https://www.facebook.com/facebookmedia/blog/doing-more-to-support-local-news

    Apple Inspiring Announcement

    https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2017/06/developer-earnings-from-the-app-store-top-70-billion/

     

  • Jason Calacanis 20:34:41 on 2019-01-15 Permalink
    Tags:   

    Zuckerberg tries to buy off journalists with .3% of Facebook’s yearly revenue 

    Yesterday I wrote the first piece in a three-part series about how Facebook could turn around their “WORST. YEAR. EVAR!!!”

    [ Click to Tweet (can edit before sending): https://ctt.ac/cRafE ]

    The basic premise: share revenue with publishers, Instagrammers/influencers, App developers and anyone else creating content on the platform, just like YouTube, Airbnb, Apple and Google’s App Stores and countless other partnership platforms do.

    Right on cue, Facebook does the most misguided, heavy-handed and unsustainable version of sharing the wealth, by sharing $100m a year — .3% of their yearly revenue — in a series of grants.

    The cynical take is that these kinds of one-time payoffs, to highly influential media organizations, are designed to silence and tamper criticism — they’re buying off influential people for a pittance.

    The most gracious take is that Facebook feels bad for being such a horrible partner to the press and democracy.

    Either way, it’s not sustainable and it’s braindead stupid. Who on earth is advising Zuckerberg about this?!

    In June of 2017, Apple reported they shared $70 billion with App developers.

    Google doesn’t break out YouTube’s revenue, but everyone knows it’s tens of billions, and that they pay out 55% to partners. The rumor in 2015 was $9B in total revenue, and we can assume that has grown to $20b+.

    If YouTube paid out 55% of even $10B that’s $5.5b to content creators — we’re talking Netflix-level spend, and 55x the pittance Facebook is splashing around a bunch of journalist nonprofits.

    The data in this chart is from Forbes, not YouTube, so it’s likely incomplete, but if this is anywhere in the ballpark, YouTube is paying it’s top five stars MORE than what Facebook is donating to non-profit organizations.

    Right now Facebook makes $33B+ a year, or almost $100M a day, off the backs of Instagrammers, Facebook users and publishers — they share zero point zero.

    If I were running Facebook I would commit 20% of top-line revenue to creators, from the New York Times to podcasters to App developers, and splash $7B to creators — a fraction of what Apple pays out a year, but what would build a base of stakeholders in the future of Facebook.

    Right now Facebook has zero friends in the industry, and legions of enemies and detractors, including the founders of WhatsApp and Instagram. Think about what a poor job Zuckerberg has done building goodwill with his juggernaut. Even the founders he made billionaires are attacking him on the way out the door with their paychecks?

    Facebook Misguided Announcement

    https://www.facebook.com/facebookmedia/blog/doing-more-to-support-local-news

    Apple Inspiring Announcement

    https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2017/06/developer-earnings-from-the-app-store-top-70-billion/

    The post Zuckerberg tries to buy off journalists with .3% of Facebook’s yearly revenue appeared first on Calacanis.com.

     

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